In honor of this week’s official start of the national holiday known as March Madness, we’ve asked some of our regular contributors to weigh in with their takes on the tournament. Today’s post is written by frequent commenter J. Hawg 3, whose description of listening to the radio broadcast of the Tennessee game in the parking lot outside a wedding reception is still cracking us up a bit. So, sit back and enjoy J. Hawg’s breakdown of the various tourney scenarios:

I was already depressed Sunday afternoon, watching this group of Hogs choke away their last chance at a ring. But when the first set of seeds were announced during the selection show, my heart sank. The Hogs drew about as bad a seed as was possible for them.

In the first place, there’s Indiana. Two bona fide All-Big Ten selections in Eric Gordon and D. J. White, and a team that was ranked No. 7 in the country shortly before the Kelvin Sampson debacle. Yes, they have been inconsistent, even suicidally depressive since then under Dan Dakich. But, uh, so have the Hogs. I would submit Indiana, if they decide to play, is the toughest No. 8 seed in the tournament. I’d like our chances better with Mississippi State (we beat them once; should have beat them twice), even better with BYU or especially UNLV. Gordon will give our weak guards fits; White, when he’s on, is a monster inside. And we have problems with really mobile and aggressive post players, despite our size.

The Hogs can certainly win against the Hoosiers, but only if the “good” Hogs show up. You know, the ones that can actually make a jump shot, don’t fall asleep on in-bounds plays, pass the ball and rebound. Which is to say, the Hogs we saw Friday and Saturday and not the ones we saw Sunday. It would help immensely if the “bad” Hoosiers showed up as well. If the “good” Hoosiers and “good” Hogs both show up, it will be a whale of a ball game, too close to call. If the “bad” Hogs show up, they will lose, and lose badly if the “good” Hoosiers show. I just don’t know how likely the Hoosiers are to play well for Dakich (they sure look like they are laying down), but the chances of the good Hogs showing are only about 70 percent (and I’m being charitable given our recent NCAA performances).

Let’s have some fun and assume a win in the first round, which is a classic 8-9 toss up. The second round is, well, let’s be frank: the Hogs have about as much chance of beating North Carolina as will Coppin State or Mt. St. Mary’s. (An Indiana playing their best stands a lot better chance of beating North Carolina, by the way.) Again, almost any of the other No. 1 seeds would have been more favorable.

(Read on …)